Below is an overly optimistic 9-3 with the win and loss columns per game below…

this is dependent on Finn running for his life with an improved OL with 1 additional impact transfer player… 1 Edge transfer impact player… and 1 DL transfer that is a legit run stopper and over 320 lbs.

Win - Tarletan State
Loss - Utah
Win - Air Force
Loss - Colorado
Win - BYU
Win - Iowa State
Win - Texas Tech
Loss - Oklahoma State
Win - TCU
Win - West Virginia
Win - Houston
Win - Kansas

Less sunshine pumping - I realistically believe we will go 6-6 this season until I see more.

MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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The roster and staff may be marginally improved, but I don't know that whatever changes we made will offset the loss of airspeed and altitude this team has experienced over the past 2 season. I don't think there is sufficient improvement to D1 talent and depth to warrant an improved record.

BUATX2000 said:

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MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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The roster and staff may be marginally improved, but I don't know that whatever changes we made will offset the loss of airspeed and altitude this team has experienced over the past 2 season. I don't think there is sufficient improvement to D1 talent and depth to warrant an improved record.

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So why are they going to be worse? (significantly so based on your 1 win prediction)

Floor- 3-9

Ceiling (if we address our issues with the portal): 8-4

Scary part is we can still finish 3-9 and be significantly improved and more competitive. Two many losses last year were decided from the opening kickoff.

For the bright side and sunshine pumpers, we can still say we dominated Zero U at the last point of the series where they did not want to play us again.

I have no expectations for this season. I'm not overly optimistic, by any stretch, but I literally have no idea what to expect from this group.

I could see us finishing anywhere from 3-9 on the low end to 7-5 on the high end or anywhere in between.

Still wondering why the OP thinks BU will be worse than last year.

My honest expectation for Baylor football in 2024 is to win more than they did last year, win a minimum of 6 games, improve offensive execution, show noticeable improvement in defense, reduce penalties, and in general just be a clearly better team than they were last season.

MrGolfguy said:

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Still wondering why the OP thinks BU will be worse than last year.

My honest expectation for Baylor football in 2024 is to win more than they did last year, win a minimum of 6 games, improve offensive execution, show noticeable improvement in defense, reduce penalties, and in general just be a clearly better team than they were last season.

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There are wins and losses, but within that there are margins of victory and defeat. Last year Baylor went 2-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points. Everyone else absolutely boat raced us and we dominated 1 game.

A few lucky breaks and staying healthy could account for a moderate improvement in those 1 score games, but apart from Houston we aren't playing against any of the former G5 big12 neophytes this year. Apart from Tarleton State, I imagine Vegas will have us as an underdog for every game we play.

Will they be improved to reduce the margin of defeat against the teams we play this year? Probably. Will they be improved enough to overcome those margins to actually win games? I don't think so.

You realize they've trashed the whole 'wide zone' failure offense right? As in dumped.

4-8

5-7 at best

Completely new staff. New offensive system.

And that's if we avoid the injury bug which we largely haven't done since 2013 but in 13/14 we had the depth to overcome some very major / key injuries to still get to 10 wins but not elite level

Zero player development since Aranda graced us with his presence and looking like a charity case with each passing year

MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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The U.S. is a great country, but our leadership has been way below par for over a decade. Result? The most popular movie out now is called "Civil War".

If we brought in better WH staff, cabinet members and strategy, the result would still be the same. That is why great coaches are paid so much.

monsterbear61 said:

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MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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The U.S. is a great country, but our leadership has been way below par for over a decade. Result? The most popular movie out now is called "Civil War".

If we brought in better WH staff, cabinet members and strategy, the result would still be the same. That is why great coaches are paid so much.

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What in the world are you talking about?

6 wins is the ceiling imo.

The bigger questions are how many wins must Dave get to keep his job, and how quickly will the AD make a decision.

I honestly see only 2 better teams than us on the schedule (Utah/Okie St) so 8 & 4 very possible.

3 of last year's losses are off the schedule.

Bad news is 6 losses from last year are back on the schedule.

It's simple to compute. 6-6.

Three wins max. All the wrong coaches get fired again.

Somewhere in the 4-6 win range. Scheme will be better on offense and defense, but Dave is still the head coach. That means that there will be a pervasive lack of energy and killer mentality that teams that aren't comprised of four and five star recruits must have to compete at a high-level. I also think we lack depth at a few key positions because of all the "not a big deal" (to quote some) transfers that we've had as well as medical retirements.

The team is also devoid of star players and known commodities in general. Another way of saying this is essentially "who are the players on offense and defense that are genuinely going to worry a big 12 offensive or defensive coordinator?" We have a few solid players, but I can't think of any that meet that criteria

Ultimately, I do think that five wins will keep Aranda his job as long as he can pull off one big upset to hang his hat on. Six wins easily keeps him his job

MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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Why do you assume they are going to be better? Honest question

I expect Air Force to be the litmus test. Utah will likely destroy us, so it will be interesting to see how the team bounces back the next game versus a tricky Air Force team.

BUATX2000 said:

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ZachTay said:

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Million-Dollar Mack will never admit his mistakes and fire a coach mid-season. Other than that, "yes" unfortunately another bleak, frustrating season holding off the rebuild.

Baylor football has been set back years by Mack Rhoades and his ego. Do not expect Baylor football to rebuild until a new AD and Head Coach are in place, and even then it can easily take a decade....if ever.

Sic'em

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Mack bought himself a stay of execution when he was able to retain Scott Drew. 1-11 might force his hand, but the worst case scenario is 5 - 7 and everyone saying "see we are on the right track" buying the Aranda experiment another 3 years.

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Pretty sure ADMR is not why Drew stayed. But you're right on 5-7 being bad in multiple ways.

MrGolfguy said:

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monsterbear61 said:

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MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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The U.S. is a great country, but our leadership has been way below par for over a decade. Result? The most popular movie out now is called "Civil War".

If we brought in better WH staff, cabinet members and strategy, the result would still be the same. That is why great coaches are paid so much.

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What in the world are you talking about?

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LOL. You're right… I put the analogy before the concept; which is to say, great leaders inspire and demand greatness in others.

If Aranda is to succeed at the head coach level, he needs to first change himself. Changing everything and everyone beneath him without changing from Defensive Coordinator mindset to head coach mindset would be his downfall. I hope and pray that he can make the transition. But, if my board had me step back from CEO to VP, and also brought in a more-experienced CEO (Patterson)….after I had already replaced all my VP picks and most of my team…well…I doubt my new team would think of me as inspiring. Thus, I worry that a few early losses could lead to a quickly spiraling decline.

MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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New staff, new offensive system, new play caller on defense..

What could possibly go wrong?

Anywhere from 1-11 to 4-8.

Daveisabovereproach said:

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MrGolfguy said:

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Why do you assume they are going to be worse than last season? You obviously give no value to any of the changes made....be it staff, players, or scheme.

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Why do you assume they are going to be better? Honest question

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I see last year as bad as it can get (3 wins is bottomed out)
They ditched the disastrous wide zone nonsense
I believe Spavital will put a better, more productive offense on the field
I believe with CDA & Fat Pat coaching the defense will improve
I believe Finn is a very good QB that will help a lot
The schedule is not 'murderers row'; I see many winnable games

chriscbear said:

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I honestly see only 2 better teams than us on the schedule (Utah/Okie St) so 8 & 4 very possible.

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I missed the list you're reading.