FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
whiterock said:
FLBear5630 said:
RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:
I think a Tim Scott or Ron DeSantis pick for VP for Trump would assure a sizeable GOP victory.
I am fully expecting him to pick a potted plant or a wackadoodle. He loves the drama.
DeSantis is not going to be VP. That would be a disaster for both, RDS sees self as #1 not #2.
I would love RDS as it woujd give him the inside track for nomination in 2024. But RDS does not grow the coalition.
Look for RDS as Arty General. He'd be absolutely that. Artillery.
Trump needs Scott, a cheerleader for Trump. RDS would butt heads, a disaster for both. VP does not give inside edge for Presidency any more than other paths. Did wonders for Pence Quayle, Gore, Mondale, Cheney, Rockefeller, Humphrey. No guarantee.
RDS, I don't see in Cabinet. AG, he would kill it. But saying yes?
Scott would be safe. Wouldn't worry about Trump & RDS head-butting, though. Reagan and Bush 41 didn't get along either, at least initially. They found a way.
VP does indeed give inside path to a nomination, which is a prerequisite to win the presidency. RDS issue is timing. He terms out in 2026, leaving him two years in the wilderness. He would benefit greatly having stage from which to run. And as VP he'd be nigh-on unbeatable. Cabinet member.....could be better than the wilderness or at worst no worse than.
What he needs most is to get better at his weakness - personability. Only time on target will fix that. Cabinet position might not be the best place to hone those skills. VP would be perfect for that. It's a facilitating job uber alles.
If you don't have Reagan's charm, you have to stack up chits of obligation to build a base, which cannot be done without "office."
We disagree on the VP giving the inside track, as modern history has shown that the number that did not get win outweighs the number that did. Especially with a President like Trump, I believe RDS is in a better position outside of Donald's orbit. As he will attract the Conservatives without Trump in the race and would need to gain traction with Independents to win. Trump does not set people up to win, he sucks the oxygen from around them.
But we all have our opinions.
you misunderstand my point. VP is the inside track to the NOMINATION, which is a prerequisite for winning the Presidency. 4 years traveling around the country, making news, delivering bacon states and congressional districts, etc..... It's a powerful stage, and you have 4 years to play on it. If you're good at it, you can effectively box everyone else out, have all the endorsements in hand. a Governor simply cannot do it. Yes, he can travel. Yes he can make news. But he can't go to ribbon cuttings of new post offices in all 50 states to make the non-political news reporting of it. He can't go to the grand opening of the newest national park. Governors don't get asked very often to speak at graduation ceremonies at the military academies, or (insert event here.) VP is just a vastly more powerful position, a nation-wide position, for a politician to exploit to build infrastructure. And that's before we get to the issue of fundraising. The VP inherits his successors fundraising base, which is national. A governor starts with a base limited to his own state.
The VP position has a much better track record of winning nominations than winning general elections, but that is still instructive - you have to win the nomination FIRST, to be able to move on to the general election round.
I agree if they do not have their own platform. Eisenhower didn't need to be VP. Truman did. Kennedy didn't, Johnson did. Nixon needed it.
I just don't see RDS fitting the Gore, Nixon, Biden, Bush, Pence model. Coming from Congress or an Agency, I would agree. They have limited exposure and resources. Even Haley would fit this model, SC is just not a big enough state to move the needle.
I see RDS as a big state Governor that would be closer to the Reagan (CA), Bush Jr (TX) Carter (GA), Romney (MA) those are high profile states. Don't think RDS needs the VP platform to make himself heard. RDS's problem is he has no charisma! VP is not going to help, actually make him wilt more next to a populist, charismatic President. RDS needs distance...
Hey, just my opinion looking in.
Well, sorta kinda. The "needed it" is a subjective way of evaluating it. Kennedy ran as a sitting US Senator, and won. Nixon was also a US Senator but never ran from that position, getting instead selected for VP. As a sitting VP, he coasted to the nomination but lost the general. Then ran for CA Gov, which he also lost. Then he ran for POTUS again as an elder statesman without portfolio and won both primary & general. One can parse galore for parallels., but which one applies - dId Nixon win as "former Senator" or "former VPOTUS" or "without portfolio?" The "loser" mantra used against Trump was apt for Nixon, who in one sense won how RDS would have to do it if he isn't Trump's VP - without portfolio - yet did have name ID and connections from long years as Senator and VP nominee (latter of which RDS will not have if he sits out 2024).
The common thread all such calculations is:
to become POTUS, you have to first win the nomination. So the most important fact to look at is...how often does a sitting VPOTUS seek but lose his party's nomination?
Answer: 20 ran, 5 lost, but two of those losses were against sitting Presidents, and ALL losses were in the smoke filled room era. No losses in the primary selection era.
In the modern era, short of an Angew-esque situation, a VPOTUS who wants the nomination will get the nomination.
SO: the single most important step RDS could take to secure the 2028 nomination is to be the VP nominee on a winning ticket.
SO: the single most important calculation for RDS is.....will Trump win?
At this point, that seems more likely than not.
Ergo.......
The weakness in the analysis that no one will want to be Trump's VP is the presumption that he simply cannot win no how any way not at all. Look at the polling. Look at the dynamics. Hell, look at the betting odds. For anyone interested in ever being President, NOT taking the nod to be Trump's VP is quite risky.
and here's one more factor no one has raised: Trump will be the nominee. If he dies or is jailed or (insert crazy scenario here), who will be the replacement nominee?
Answer: 95% odds it will be the person Trump selected as his VP.
(and that person will have the ability to run as incumbent in 2028....long odds beating an incumbent POTUS).
Look at party rules on such things.
Look at who's running the party.
Trump supporters would pick Trump's replacement.
So, yeah, getting picked by Trump to be his PV nominee is a pretty big deal if you ever want to be POTUS
